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Betting odds in blackjack

 

Blackjack is a game that may look simple on the outside, but beneath the surface you’ll find that it’s all about odds and making the correct mathematical decisions. It’s easy to let your intuition take over and base your decisions at the table on that. To be able to play perfectly and master blackjack, it is however crucial to understand what the odds are for every scenario you face and only base your decisions on those odds. It’s important to be aware of how the house is getting an edge in the game and what advantages us players have to our disposal, which can be used to lower the house edge.

In the following article we’ll be covering the basics for the optimal blackjack strategy, known as basic strategy, which makes it possible to lower the house edge a great deal. We’ll take a look at how the house is getting its edge; what our own advantages are; give a few examples on the odds on certain outcomes and show you how basic strategy is applied at the tables. The goal is to create a good understanding of the importance of odds and how the use of basic strategy can help you improve your game when you’re playing for real money.

 

The house edge in blackjack

As with all casino games it’s inevitable to get away from the fact that the house has an edge on us players. Even if you master blackjack and learn how to take all the right decisions using basic strategy, it’s important to be aware that the house will still have an edge and win in the long run. The exception would be if you played perfectly and also learned how to count cards as you actually could get a slight advantage.

The reason that the house always has an edge on us players in blackjack is the simple fact that we have to act first at the table. Every time we hit a card and bust, which happens about 28% of the time, we will lose even though it turns out the dealer busted as well. This is the huge advantage the house has on us, which is that big that we normally can’t beat it.

Even though we can’t beat the house, we have all the tools needed to drastically lower its edge. As a starting point the house has an edge of 8% on us players, but by using the optimal strategy, basic strategy, we’re able to lower this down to as little as 0.2-0.5%, depending on what the rules are at the table. This is done by using the advantages that we players have at the table in a mathematically correct way.

 

The player's advantages in blackjack

Even though the dealer has a huge advantage by always acting last, we players do after all have a lot of alternatives that can be used to our advantage, which the dealer doesn’t. It’s these alternatives that make it possible for us to perfect our game so that the house edge can be drastically lowered.

  • Every time we manage to hit 21 and get a blackjack, we get paid extra as this pays 3:2 (2.5 times the stake), as long as the dealer doesn’t also have 21 as we would then just get our stake back.
  • We have a lot of options with our hands as we’re always allowed to choose if we would like to stand or hit, whereas the dealer is extremely limited and forced to hit on all card combinations up to a value of 17, no matter if the dealer has us beat with a lower hand value.
  • We’re able to use a double down feature that allows us to double our stake at times when it’s to our advantage, hence being able to maximize our winnings from those moments.
  • We can choose to split pairs, which makes it possible for us to improve weaker hands and also take advantage of the dealer’s weak ones.
  • Even if it’s not always offered, we sometimes have the possibility to surrender our starting hand and get half our stake back. In the long run this can save us money and the dealer never has this option.

 

The importance of odds

The key to becoming a successful blackjack player lies a lot in the understanding of odds and probabilities. No matter what cards you have been given and what situation you face at the table, it’s incredibly important to be aware of the chance of winning and probability of busting.

The key to becoming a successful blackjack player lies a lot in the understanding of odds and probabilities. No matter what cards you have been given and what situation you face at the table, it’s incredibly important to be aware of the chance of winning and probability of busting. Let’s start off by taking a look at what the probabilities are to bust when you hit an extra card to your starting hand:

Probability to bust on an extra card

Hand value Probability
11 or lower 0%
12 31%
13 39%
14 56%
15 58%
16 62%
17 69%
18 77%
19 85%
20 92%
21 100%

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